2017 Power Rankings-Week 13
Introduction I. The year is 2011. Three teams are fighting for the final two spots in the inaugural Festival of Champions. In 5th, you have Brak and Yellow. At 7-5, the team is very likely punching their first ticket to the tourney. In 6th, the Commish. After starting 5-2, GBM had gone 1-4 and was now fighting for survival at 6-6. In 7th, Papa's Posse. Also 6-6, but PP had gone through hell or high water to get there. They turned a 2-6 start into something special, and now all they needed to do was beat their week 13 opponent...Brak and Yellow. In a crazy week 13, Brak and Yellow was defeated, Commish beat Paddock 9 handily, and both Papa and Garoppoblow made the Festival while 7-6 BY unbelievably collapsed into the Consolation Tournament. The only above-.500 team to ever miss the playoffs. Papa became the 2011 Glory Bowl champion. II. The year is 2012. In 6th place, 5-7 Why am I doing this. First they were 1-4, then 2-6, then 3-7. The team never looked good, but back-to-back wins against playoff contenders had them in the hunt. All they needed to do was knock off 9-3 ma ma momma said and they would be in. In 7th place, Pain Train WOO WOO. Not only were they better than Why am I doing this, it wasn't even close. Pain Train had 400 more points scored than WAIDT on the season, yet they had one fewer win. If they could win, and WAIDT could lose, they could sneak in at 5-7. Why am I doing this pulled an incredible upset, defeating MMMS 211.28-190.73. For the second year in a row, a team that at one point sat in last place in the standings had made an unbelievable late-season run and punched a ticket to the Festival of Champions. Why am I doing this lost in the quarterfinals but became the first sub-.500 team to make the playoffs. MMMS, the vanquished week 13 foe, went on to win Glory Bowl II. Pain Train demolished all competition in the consolation tournament. III. The year is 2016. In 1st place, Garoppoblow me sits at 9-3 and in control of a bye spot. One more win and they are granted the top seed in the Festival of Champions. In 10th place, ma ma momma said. 2-11 for the second time in their franchise history, MMMS was well on their way to last place in the consolation tournament. The one bright spot to their season was a handful of mid-round picks that they acquired from Paddock 9 halfway through the year. Neither team won Glory Bowl VI, but with their final positions in 2016, MMMS was able to obtain Le'Veon Bell in the opening round of the 2017 draft while GBM settled for Jordy Nelson. IV. The year is 2017. Thursday, November 30th. For the first time since 2012, one team is making a remarkable late season run after being counted out early in the year. Meanwhile, another team is fighting for survival after a hot start. Familiar players. Pain Train in 4th place, locked in battle with 5th place Paddock 9. At 6-6, Paddock 9 either needs to beat Pain Train or outscore ma ma momma said. In 6th place, Ma ma momma said, also sitting at 6-6 and also needing to either win or outscore Paddock 9. Momma started this season 1-5, but has gone 5-1 since. One of the great regular season runs of all time could continue right into the playoffs if they finish what they started in week 13. The one thing standing in their way is Garoppoblow Me, who (like 2011), started off looking good and then stumbled. Now they find themselves in a do-or-die situation. At 5-7, GBM is long removed from their hot 3-1 start. Like Pain Train in 2012, they have the point advantage on almost everybody else in the league, but they don't have the wins to show for it. Their victory would likely extinguish the historical ascent of ma ma momma said, sending them back to irrelevance for another season. Their defeat would mark a massive power shift in the league. GBM is coming off back-to-back bye seasons. The stories are all similar, with most of the same teams and a lot of the same drama, but with each year the intensity is increased, the history behind the franchises grows, the stakes are raised, and the win is even sweeter. Who will see their fairytale continue, and who will see their journey end in five days? Absolute Standings Absolute Standings is simply this: what if instead of matchups, the top five teams got a W every week and the bottom five took an L? If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today: Every Team Every Week Standings Every Team Every Week is simply this: what if instead of matchups, every team played every team every week? (AKA the record you're given from that random stat in the matchup recap). If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today: Who's Hot, Who's Not? Sweet Dee vs. TB WE DID IT! The Bust Zone Jordy Nelson may be a bust, but with rumors that Aaron Rodgers will be back for the Festival Semifinals there is a chance this player becomes relevant for the endgame. Just a matter of which tournament he will be playing in... Rookie Rundown Is Joe Mixon turning it on at just the right time? Tune in next week to find out. Stat Chat LOC *The Shotti Bunch becomes the 9th team to reach 30 combined losses. *Sweet Dee becomes the 9th team to reach 20 regular season wins. *JarJar becomes the 10th team to reach 20 regular season losses. *The Duck Punchers becomes the 1st team to reach 19,000 regular season points scored. *The Duck Punchers becomes the 1st team to reach 22,000 combined points scored. *Garoppoblow Me becomes the 4th team to reach 21,000 combined points scored. *Paddock 9 becomes the 7th team to reach 20,000 combined points scored. *Sweet Dee is the 9th team to reach 12,000 regular season points scored. *Teams scoring over 230 points are 18-2 this season. Papa's Pussies and Garoppoblow Me suffered the only two losses. NFL * Adrian Peterson (P9) has averaged just over 20 touches per game in his last three starts after seeing 39 touches in week 9. He has the fourth-lowest rate among backs of rushes gaining over ten yards and is posting the lowest YPC of his career (3.47). * 36% of Cam Newton's (TSB) fantasy points have come from rushing. * Dak Prescott's (DP) QB rating is fourth-worst in the league when the pocket is kept clean and second-worst when he is under pressure. * DeAndre Hopkins (DP) has either 70+ yards or a TD in every single game this season. * Keenan Allen (P9) has scored more in the last two weeks than Eric Decker (JJS) has scored all season. * Marcus Mariota (MMMS) has thrown multiple TDs in just two games this season. * Jamison Crowder (DEE) is behind only Antonio Brown (PT) and DeAndre Hopkins (DP) in PPG over the last four games. Trade Tracker Starts: *Thompson: 4 *Wentz: 4 *Brady: 4 *Crowder: 3 Starts: *McCaffrey: 3 *Abdullah: 4 *Morris: 3 Well, this head-to-head did not go the way Papa expected it would go when these two teams made the trade a month ago. McCaffrey is averaging 24.14 points a game, which is more output than Papa can seem to get from both players combined. Starts: * Elliot: 1 * Cooks: 3 * Olsen: 1 Even with the question of whether Olsen is going to get any more playing time this season, momma is 4-0 since the trade and Cooks has ignited this stagnent offense just in time for the playoff push. Starts *Miller: 4 *Snead: 0 *Juju: 2 *Duke: 3 Has Duck Punchers lost a step? They averaged 210.46 points per game the eight weeks before the trade and have averaged 182.50 points in the four games since. Matchup Recap One man's trash is the same man's treasure. After being drafted dumped by both GBM and then picked up and dropped by Pain Train earlier in the season, Cooper Kupp was picked back up by GBM for his week 12 matchup with Pain Train and absolutely went off. And he wasn't alone. Alvin Kamara, looking like a rookie of the year candidate, demolished the Rams in a game that paid massive dividends to the Commish. There were little things. For example, a week after Delanie Walker dropped a touchdown that would have given them the victory against RIPDab, Booker fell one yard short of a touchdown against the Raiders. But with a huge lead heading into Sunday night, GBM felt confident that they were going to pull of a win. Pain Train has not gotten the production out of Jordan Howard he had hoped for this season. In fact, he has finished as a top-10 back just once all season. For the second time in three weeks Howard finished with under 10 points. Add in rough days from Seferian-Jenkins, McKinnon and Hill and it was looking like an upset was possible. However, never underestimate an opponent's ability to go off against GBM. Here is a chart of GBM's opponent's top scoring NON-QB/NON-D player in weeks 5-12. What the chart doesn't show is that in the two "Antonio Brown" games Pain Train had another position player score over 45, in addition to his QB and defense scores. In this case it was Robby Anderson with 46.60 points on top of Big Ben with 52.82. Add in Davonte Adams 29.80 for good measure and this became a blowout between the start of the second half and the end of the third quarter of the Sunday night Packers vs. Steelers game. Playoffs?? Two more teams were eliminated in week twelve, making this a seven team race for the Eternal Cup of Glory. With one team set to be eliminated in week 13, I think it is safe to say the Festival has started early. Magic Number A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must win to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. NOTE: Due to the point disparity (152.16), Paddock 9 has been marked as ineligible to overtake Pain Train, even with a win. ^ - Means Team will Finish At or Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot. DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams. *- Indicates First Round Bye Elimination Number An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must lose to guarantee losing a given playoff spot. Note: JarJar has been eliminated due to an insurmountable point differential. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot. MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games. *- Indicates first round bye Week Thirteen Scenarios Note: Due to complex points-scored tiebreakers, I decided to only highlight what seemed reasonable. For example, JarJar's lone playoff scenario involves the team outscoring another by 294.06 points. For these scenarios, I eliminated all situations where one team would have to outscore another by over 150 points. * The Shotti Bunch - Clinched the #1 seed * RIPDab clinches the #2 seed with: ** A win ''and'' a Duck Punchers loss, or ** A win and Duck Punchers does not outscore by more than 47.76 points, or ** A Pain Train Loss and a Duck Punchers loss and Duck Punchers does not outscore by more than 47.76, or ** Outscore Pain Train by 39 and A Duck Punchers loss and ''Duck Punchers does not outscore by more than 47.76. * '''The Duck Punchers '''clinches the #2 seed with: ** A '''win 'and a RIPDab loss, or ** A win and outscore RIPDab by 47.76, or ** A Pain Train loss and a RIPDab loss and outscore RIPDab by 47.76, or ** A RIPDab loss ''and'' outscore RIPDab by 47.76 and ''outscore Pain Train by 86.76. * '''Pain Train WOO WOO '''clinches the #2 seed with: ** A '''win 'and losses by RIPDab and The Duck Punchers and RIPDab does not outscore by more than 39 and The Duck Punchers does not outscore by more than 86.76. * Paddock 9 '''clinches a playoff spot with: ** A '''win, or ** A loss by Garoppoblow Me, or ** ma ma momma said does not outscore by more than 8 points. * ma ma momma said '''clinches a playoff spot with: ** A '''win, or ** A P9 loss and outscore P9 by 8. * Garoppoblow Me '''clinches a playoff spot with: ** A '''win. Power Rankings PT - Team record against teams currently in a playoff position. L3 - Record over the last three games. © - Clinched Playoff Berth (E) - Eliminated from Playoff Contention (B) - Clinched a First Round Bye ---- 1(1). The Shotti Bunch (9-3) © (B) *PT: 5-2 *L3: 2-1 Very weak performance from The Shotti Bunch, but this should come as no surprise to anyone. I entered the obscure stat vault and pulled out this gem: The Shotti Bunch averages 229 fantasy points per game and has an insane 0.667 win%. But in week twelve The Shotti Bunch has averaged just 198.66 fantasy points per game and has a 0.334 win%. 15% of all Shotti's regular season losses have come in week twelve. ---- 2(5). Pain Train WOO WOO (7-5) © * PT: 1-4 * L3: 3-0 Two or three players scoring enough points to mask the shortcomings of the entire rest of the team is not sustainable. Just ask Pain Train themselves. This is exactly how they made it to Glory Bowl III in 2013, flying with the wings of Peyton Manning and Calvin Johnson, both in the throes of their last giant year. BUT...the fact of the matter is that 2013 team DID make it to the Glory Bowl. So what is this team capable of doing? While many are still not convinced of this team's legitimacy, their record and current scoring explosion suggests they might be hot at the right time. ---- 3(3). RIPDab (8-4) © * PT: 4-3 * L3: 2-1 Crabtree might have had his chain snatched, but it was RIP snatching Duck Punchers' bye spot that everyone should be talking about. And it gets better, because not only was RIP able to win without Crabtree, but the Oakland WR is now guaranteed to be healthy for the playoffs because he is suspended for week thirteen. If he can defeat his roommate in the final game of the regular season he will have snaked a bye from DP and be avoiding another date with TSB in the semi-finals. ---- 4(6). ma ma momma said (6-6) * PT: 2-5 * L3: 3-0 Well, well, if it ain't the 4-0 kid. Since a humiliating loss to Paddock 9 in week eight, all momma has done is rip off four straight victories, one against the defending Glory Bowl champion and one against the defending Salty Dolphin Bowl champion. While his 180 points wasn't enough to earn him an "absolute" victory in week twelve, he has to like his chances of going off in week thirteen against the formidable but hopeless GBM. But there are question marks, specifically at QB. ---- 5(2). The Duck Punchers (8-4) © * PT: 6-1 * L3: 1-2 No one, and I mean no one, needs the bye more than The Duck Punchers, and to obtain it they will need to either find a way to break out of their scoring slump or hope that TSB has another off day. Which is more likely? Well, The Shotti Bunch has not had back-to-back games under 200 in several years, and The Duck Punchers has not scored over 200 since week 9. So just how desperate is Duck Punchers? They are starting Josh Gordon, who has not played an NFL snap since Dec 21, 2014. ---- 6(4). Garoppoblow Me (5-7) * PT: 4-4 * L3: 1-2 These are the POWER RANKINGS, not the standings, and if I wasn't writing this about myself I might have even put this team higher. But I'm trying to compensate for my bias the best I can. GBM is the only taem to have scored over 200 points in each of the last three weeks and has the longest active streak of games over 200 with 4 and is one of only two teams to score over 200 points 8 times this season. But what the fuck does scoring the most points matter if you never take home the W? Enter with me into the obscure stat vault: This is the fourth time GBM has scored over 230 points in week twelve and they are 1-3 in those games. THAT'S FUCKING BANANAS. WHAT THE FUCK? ---- 7(7). Paddock 9 (6-6) * PT: 1-4 * L3: 1-2 Paddock 9, always willing to show up a game that he has a 100% chance of winning, really showed up to this one and put together his best game of the season BY FAR. He won by over 97 points. But, uh oh, what could that possibly mean for them this week? I mean, there is no chance he gets all of that production two weeks in a row, right? Lucky for them, they aren't really playing for the win. Sure, that would be nice, but really what they need to do is just score more points than Jared. It's that simple. No chance this goes horribly wrong. ---- 8(10). Sweet Dee (3-9) (E) * PT: 0-8 * L3: 1-2 No team has ever gone winless against that season's playoff teams and unless they can defeat RIP or GBM can make their way into the dance, Sweet Dee will have the distinct honor of being the first to do so. The good news for them is that they have been on fire of late, especially with the resurgance of Jamison Crowder. ---- 9(8). Papa's Pussies (3-9) (E) * PT: 3-7 * L3: 1-2 I wonder what kind of loss is worse? Having your best game of the season and still losing by 11 points, or having one of your worst games of the season and losing by 100. I think I'd rather lose by 100. I guess in that case we can chalk this up to another moral victory for Papa! ---- 10(9). JarJar Stinks! (5-7) (E) * PT: 2-6 * L3: 1-2 JarJar has broken 200 three times and failed to break 160 five times. But if somehow they can defeat Papa they might find themselves in 7th place, tied for a playoff spot with either momma or P9. That's the kind of league I have apparently built. Where one of the worst teams in LOC History can finish tied for a playoff spot ahead of one of the top scoring teams of the season. Matchups of the Week Whoever designed this schedule deserves a congratulatory drink. It's almost like they could somehow predict how everything was going to line up for the last week of the season based on all the historical data that they had been cultivating for years, and then they catered the entire schedule to ensure the maximum amount of drama for the end of the season. Whoever they are, they sure do care more about the league than about themselves. The Undercards 10th place Papa's Pussies (187.73) vs. 8th place JarJar Stinks! (177.26) Booooooooring. Last season the 7th-10th place teams all faced off and this year we have a similar Browns vs. 49ers game to end the year. Nothing really going on here except some stat padding, though I suppose this will seed the consolation tournament. Papa's goal is to never finish last, and it is hard to say if he means finish the regular season last or finish the consolation tournament last. That being said, it is rumored that if he ever finished last he would retire from the league, so maybe there is more at stake here than we think. Papa is 2-1 against JarJar and this is the first time they are meeting this season. ---- 2nd place RIPDab (220.11) vs. 9th place Sweet Dee (204.76) RIPDab is 7-1 lifetime against Sweet Dee, the lone defeat coming way back in 2014. But Sweet Dee has arguably been better than Dab in the month of November and has a prime shot at playing spoiler again in this one. RIP defeated Sweet Dee 228-157 earlier this season. ---- 1st place The Shotti Bunch (219.84) vs. 3rd place The Duck Punchers (196.18) The Shotti Bunch has been coasting since the end of November, so no one has really talked about this team's championship chances. The Duck Punchers, meanwhile, have struggled of late and everyone is talking about what they should or should not have done during that watershed Trade Wednesday. All that can change if The Duck Punchers pulls off the upset in week thirteen. These old rivals own the league's last four trophies and are the two winningest teams in the league's history. When they face off, it is always fireworks. Shotti narrowly owns the series edge, 6-5. ---- 4th place Pain Train WOO WOO (218.74) vs. 5th place Paddock 9 (203.84) After facing off just once in each of the last three seasons, P9 and PT now face off for the first time in 2017 and the stakes are as high as ever between these two rivals. P9 needs to win or at least outscore 6th place momma to get into the playoffs, while Pain Train has a chance at a bye spot if they can pull of the victory and get the results they need elsewhere in the league. Pain Train owns the series edge 5-3 but is on a two-game losig streak against P9. These two have never faced in the postseason and this could be a potential playoff preview. If they finish in 4th and 5th, as they are seeded now, or if they end up 3rd and 6th, they will face each other again in the quarterfinals. The Main Event Garoppoblow Me (224.30) vs. ma ma momma said (202.16) * 2017 Records ** MMMS: 6-6 (6th) ** GBM: 5-7 (7th) * Head-to-Head Wins ** MMMS: 7 ** GBM: 2 * Key Injuries (MMMS) ** Greg Olsen (Questionable) ** Robert Woods (Doubtful) - This adds value to GBM's Cooper Kupp and is thus a huge injury in this matchup. ** Allen Hurns (Doubtful) * Key Injuries (GBM) ** None (Sterling's head doesn't hurt anymore but fuck this guy anyway) * Players to Watch (GBM) ** Golden Tate: Terrible game in week eleven and now week twelve and now faces off against stout Baltimore defense. He would belong to MMMS if not for the trade veto. ** Carson Wentz: With Goff having a stellar season on the bench, the decision to roll with Wentz against Seattle could prove either a genius move or a season killer. Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been this team's X-factor and that needs to continue if GBM wants a shot at the Festival. ** Sterling Shepard: No headaches? We good? Okay, great, welcome back. You're just in time. Eli Manning is no longer your QB. Who you got throwing to you now? Geno Smith. Fucking Geno Smith, dude. * Players to Watch (MMMS) ** T.Y. Hilton: T.Y. is like a volcano waiting to erupt. It only happens once in a while but it's been a few weeks now. This is the matchup of the game as he is facing Jacksonville D. A killer day from T.Y. likely K.O.'s GBM. ** Joe Mixon: Well, look who decided to show up. Just in time to take down the guy who has shit on you all season. ** Le'Veon Bell: GBM has lost the last two games in bone-crushing fashion on Monday and Sunday night games, respectively. Now, Bell will go on Monday night and we will know how much he and Mixon need to gain to send Momma to the playoffs. Hold on tight. I didn't want to make myself matchup of the week for the fifth time this season. I really didn't. I was hoping I would have won at least one of the last two games and be sitting pretty waiting for the playoffs to start. But that isn't the case. We have ourselves a cut and dry win and in scenario here and it is an unavoidable matchup of the week. GBM has historically performed terribly against MMMS, with just two career games over 200 against them. This Glory Bowl II rematch will likely determine which of the two teams still has a shot at Glory Bowl VII. With no players going on Thursday, this one kicks off on Sunday with almost the entire team going for GBM in the day games. But it is Carson Wentz on Sunday night going up against Jay Ajayi, with Ajayi hoping to keep MMMS within firing range for Mixon and Bell on Monday night. GBM realistically needs 100 points to consider himself safe. Anything between 50-100 is a nailbiter. Anything less than 50 will be to MMMS's advantage. Anything less than 30 and it's game over. While there is a scenario where both teams make the playoffs, this one has the feeling of an elimination game. Both of these teams have worked very hard to be playoff ready and both are looking like title contenders now that we are down to the final week. But the fact is you can look like a title contender all you want but unless you have enough win-money to cash in for a playoff ticket, you ain't worth shit. Well, the bill has come due. Time to pay up.